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China's GDP grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year, surpassing expectations, though it still requires a push to reach the 5% target. UBS's Thomas Fang expressed optimism following recent policy measures aimed at stimulating the economy, anticipating potential growth above 5% for 2024.
Chinese stock markets, including the Hang Seng, rebounded over 3% following better-than-expected economic data and a new PBoC program to finance corporate buybacks. The Hang Seng is attempting to recover from the 20,000-point threshold, with a target of 22,700, 25,000, and 30,000 points, contingent on positive retail sales data.
Global equity markets are poised for growth, supported by lower interest rates and China's significant stimulus package aimed at revitalizing its economy. The ongoing AI revolution further enhances this positive outlook, despite potential volatility from geopolitical tensions and upcoming US elections. Investors are encouraged to position for long equity exposure as structural support builds through 2025.
US indices are set for historic gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones on track for their best run since late 2023. The ASX 200 reached a record high, driven by strong bank performance, while key economic indicators showed positive trends in retail sales and job growth.Looking ahead, significant events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's speech and the release of various PMIs in the US, Europe, and Japan, alongside the third-quarter earnings season featuring major companies like Tesla and Boeing.
Abbott Laboratories, a leader in pharmaceutical and medical product development, has received a Buy rating from UBS. The company's net sales are primarily derived from diagnostic systems (39.1%) and vascular devices (24.7%), with significant contributions from nutritional products (12.1%) and medical products (8.2%). Geographically, the United States accounts for 38.5% of sales, followed by Germany (5.8%) and China (5.6%).
Policymakers in the U.S. and China are taking decisive steps to bolster economic growth, with the Fed initiating an easing cycle and China committing to support consumers. This shift in strategy signals a potential revival in private sector confidence, despite ongoing risks. Asset allocation is adjusting, favoring emerging markets and Asian credit, while U.S. Treasuries are downgraded. Caution remains due to geopolitical uncertainties and the possibility of disappointing Chinese policy outcomes.
The ECB meeting today is pivotal, with expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, following a significant drop in eurozone inflation. Investors are also focused on US retail sales and jobless claims data, alongside key economic indicators from China. The EUR/USD trading range of 1.08 to 1.12 dollars remains crucial, with potential implications for market movements.
UBS has downgraded A.P. Möller-Maersk to neutral from buy. The company, a leader in maritime transportation, operates over 707 vessels and offers port and logistics services. Its net sales are primarily generated from the United States (22.4%), with other significant contributions from various countries.
UBS has downgraded A.P. Møller-Maersk to neutral from buy. The company, a leader in maritime transport, operates a fleet of over 707 vessels and provides port and logistical services. Its net sales are primarily generated from the United States (22.4%) and other global markets.
UBS has downgraded SRF Ltd's stock rating from BUY to SELL, reducing the target price from Rs 2700 to Rs 2100, citing fading recovery hopes and prolonged growth difficulties. The stock has seen a 7% decline over the past two weeks, closing at Rs 2303.30, with a significant year-on-year profit drop of 29.8% reported for the last quarter. Concerns over weak agro-chemical demand and soft refrigerant gas prices have been highlighted, indicating potential negative surprises ahead.
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